Re: [Harp-L] Harmonica production

["Tim Moyer" <wmharps@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

larryboy wrote:
> I posited that the harmonica was the most popular instrument 
> in the world in terms of annual production of units
<snip> 
> Does any one have any tips or directions to finding out the 
> annual production of harmonicas.  

You may not have to sum all the production figures for all the
manufacturers if you can find one manufacturer who has good numbers --
and is willing to share them -- on sales and market share.  After all,
you don't really care how many they make, you care how many they sell.
 So, if someone like Hohner will give you the sales numbers for a
given year in a given territory, then their market share (admittedly
an estimate) in that territory, and that territory's percentage of the
market as a whole, you could extrapolate rough figures on worldwide
units sold.  

For example (and I'm TOTALLY making these numbers up), if Hohner sells
2 million total units (all models of all types) in the US, and they
have 50% of the market share, and the US is 50% of the global market,
then the market is 2,000,000 / .5 / .5, which equals 8,000,000 units.
 Of course, this assumes constant market share through all markets,
which is no doubt wrong.  

It also doesn't account for pathological cases like me (or yourself,
Larry Boy) who have hundreds of harmonicas; it doesn't account for
resales of used instruments (probably not a huge percentage); and it
doesn't account for actual sales, since they don't sell directly, but
only through distrubutors.  But it might get you a ballpark number.

-tim