Re: Conventions (warning-Long)

[Roy G <rgermon@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

he he....I like these threads.  

You switched from percent to percentile which is not the same thing at 
all.  

Let's see...of the 6 billion people in the world, there are probably 
about 1 billion who have ever heard of the equation E=mc^2.  Of those, 
I'd guess that maybe a hundred million know what E, m, and c mean.  I'm 
in the 99th percentile now.  :)  I'm 99% as good as Einstein at Physics. 
 I should be invited to physics conferences instead of that Hawkings 
guy...they'd sure save a lot of money.

To be 96.3% as good as Kim Wilson, you have to be able to score 96.3 on 
a test on which Kim just barely scores 100.  I'd bet against there beig 
6000 guys who can do this.  Same for the rest of our top guns.  

Now, here's a serious question:  why do you need names to increase the 
"draw"?  Is the turnout usually below capacity?  Do the bars that host 
the jams lose money?  Is it to get more press?  To know how to increase 
draw, it helps to know why the draw is low, why you want it to be 
higher, and who you want to draw in.

Roy G  

the Leones wrote:

>
>
>   The other day I posted something whereas I used percentiles. This 
> elicited some off list e-mail to wit: I was basically told that I 
> would be held accountable for anything(s) I wrote. So here goes.
>
>   Someone mentioned that there were 6 TRILLION people on the planet. 
> Actually, I can remember that it was on my birthday (2002) that the 
> global pop. topped 6 BILLION. Soooo, let's take some figures and toss 
> them out on the table and play around with them and see what they do. 
> And since I have a fixation for figures, we may as well work this into 
> the porridge.
>
>   Let's say that out of 6,ooo,ooo,ooo people there are 6,ooo,ooo who 
> either DO, Have, or have at least tried the harmonica. Does this sound 
> ludicrous? Maybe, maybe not. There are probably a million just in 
> Japan. China, fageddabowt it.
>
>   Now, let's propose the theory that 6,ooo are fairly decent. I don't 
> think this is a ridiculous claim. Ooohhh, this comes to 99.9 percentile.
> So let's see there are 6,ooo,ooo harmonica players and 6,ooo are good. 
> The figure *I* used was 96.3 percentile, and stated that there are 
> enough players in this region that could be explored.
>
>   BTW, 96.3 percentile adds ANOTHER 21,600 to the porridge (total now 
> 27,600).
>
>   But wait, I digresseth to much. Go back a ways and bring the figure 
> down to 600 (99.99 percentile). Do ANY of you know 600 harmonica 
> players? I doubt it. While there are more than that right on this 
> list, how many fit the 600 super collosal 99.99 percentile?
>
>   Let's go a little farther and take it down to 60 (99.999 
> percentile). I hate to tell you but THAT figure represents a "Finer 
> than the finest" GOLD situation. Can anyone name them? Let's be honest 
> here and remember that YOUR perception of who is or isn't a *STAR* may 
> be different. Certainly "Name Recognition" would be a factor here, and 
> NOT just to the people on this list. The "Average" harmonica player 
> doesn't know these people let alone the "Informed" player.
>
>   Example: You go to the Ft. Myers Harmonica Club, (OR the other TWO 
> clubs I have belonged to) and ask around. There are 71 active players 
> (+ spouses, + sick or inactive players). I have also found that just 
> about every trailer park (resort?) down here has from 6-20 harmonica 
> players.
> I was shocked to find there are (when the snowbirds are in town) 
> HUNDREDS of harmonica players JUST in SOUTH WEST Fla.
>
>   So last time we were still on THIS planet, we ended up with 60. 
> Let's go down to 6 now. This may (or may NOT) depending on YOUR 
> perspective include certain names. MY perception "Might" be
> 1...... ONE Chromatic based Harmonica Trio/Quartet
> 2...... ONE Chromatic Singleton..Female
> 3...... ONE Chromatic Singleton..Male
> 4...... ONE Diatonic Fronted band
> 5...... ONE Diatonic Singleton
> 6...... ONE "MULTI" Instrumentalist
>
>   Speaking of mirrors: There is a mirror in my bathroom. The only 
> other mirror(s) are in the wife's bedroom. I only get to see the 
> bathroom mirror on Wednesdays (when I shave for my Jazz gig). If I 
> were to walk past a mirror and look into it, could I (keeping a 
> straight face, mind you), honestly say to myself "You're GOOD kid"? I 
> don't think so.
>
>   I don't go to any of the "Teach-Inns". Is this arrogance? Not at 
> all. Since I was already performing at 14 to 16, took a 25 yr lay-off 
> and "Came back" 19 yrs ago, I should ALREADY know the stuff that the 
> teachers are teaching (and I DON't). For me to sit there with someone 
> half my age would be VERY embarrassing. And it's NOT PRIDE..It's 
> HUMILITY. Also, since I am older now, it makes more sense to let 
> someone who could REALLY use the lesson, STILL has the time, and STILL 
> has the energy, HAVE the chair. I rarely perform at SPAH. Though a 
> perfectionist, I suck and usually get ill right before going on.
>
>   My original post was described (by a few) as either arrogant, 
> judgemental, cutting, "dissing", etc. It was far from that. Using the 
> word "Lesser" was taken to mean lesser player. NEGATIVE, it meant 
> lesser REPUTATION, lesser NAME RECOGNITION, lesser BREAKS.
>
>   If ya'all will remember, I said "Just because someone is a 90 
> percentile doesn't mean they won't be a better SURGEON than a person 
> who was a 99.9" We see it all the time. THIS is EXACTLY why some 
> people are going UP the stairs while others are coming DOWN. THIS is 
> why a person can be an Olympic CHAMP one day and an Olympic CHUMP the 
> next.
>
>   Every convention (I have been to 17), I come away stunned after 
> hearing someone I had previously NEVER heard (OR) heard OF. EVERY 
> convention brings surprises. Let's keep doing this. I suppose my 
> wording left something to be desired. I felt the Dallas SPAH was a 
> good "MIX". The only persons I had ever heard were Paul Oscher & 
> Norton Buffalo. The only persons I had ever heard OF were Fata 
> Morgana, Phil Wiggins. I didn't even know that Buffalo was the guy 
> with the Steve Miller Band, so (technically), I didn't even KNOW I had 
> even HEARD Buffalo. And, this coming from a guy who knows a lot of 
> players? Go figure.
>
>   Imagine the "average" player out there. Who do THEY know? Who have 
> THEY heard of?
>
>   One last note: I may have a night where I am PHYSICALLY able, but my 
> MIND-SET isn't right. On another occasion, my MIND may be right but my 
> BODY is wrong. Sometimes BOTH mind and BODY are Kaflooey. Sometimes I 
> am "HOT" (like Wednesday). Sorry, but that means I have about a 25% 
> chance of being any good, and you can't do THAT if you want to be a 
> *STAR*. The ONLY thing seperating the good from the really good is 
> "Consistency"..There I said it.
>
>   smokey-joe
>
>
>
>
>
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